地点：7号楼报告厅
讲座题目：“中澳关系”
演讲人：悉尼科技大学澳中关系研究院院长 鲍勃•卡尔教授

Public Lecture on Australia-China Relations by Professor the Hon. Bob Carr, Director of the Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney

近三十年来，澳大利亚的经济增长受益于中国的迅速发展及其对自然资源的巨大需求。而今中国经济发展进入新常态，虽然增速低于过去三十年，但增量仍不小于过去。到2030年，中国将有70%的中产阶级：中产阶级人口数增加8.6亿。澳大利亚必须适应中国从“出口型经济”到“消费型经济”的转型。澳大利亚加入亚投行并签署澳中自贸协订是其明智之举。那么最近澳大利亚新总理的上任对于澳方的对华政策意味着什么呢？澳大利亚会像新西兰、英国和德国一样采取实用主义的对华政策？还是在南海问题上与美国结成统一阵线？现任的特恩布尔政府需要谨慎思量其对美国与中国的外交策略。

Over the past three decades the Australian economy has benefitted from China’s rapid growth and huge appetite for natural resources. China’s economy is now transitioning to a new normal growth rate slower than that of the past 30 years but it is still adding more dollars to the economy than ever before. By 2030, 70 percent of the Chinese population is likely to enjoy middle class status: that’s 860 million more middle class Chinese than today. Australia must reorient as China shifts from an export-oriented model to a consumption-based economy. Signing up to the AIIB and ratifying the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement have been steps in the right direction. What does a recent change of Prime Minister mean for Australia’s China policy? A pragmatic China policy like those of New Zealand, the UK and Germany? Or a commitment to link-up with the US in the South China Sea out in front of other US partners? The Turnbull Government will need to continually manage its choices with the US and China using careful diplomacy.